Daily Forex Fundamental and Technical Analysis
Forex Analysis from banks
Commerzbank has updated its 2022 EUR/USD forecast: Q1 - 1.12, Q2 - 1.10, Q3 - 1.09, Q4 - 1.12.
Credit Suisse EUR/USD
According to commentary of David Sneddon, a strategist of technical analysis, a break-down of the support at 1.1272 gives an opportunity for a further decline of the EUR/USD to 1.1019 in the short-term.
Danske Bank EUR/USD
Danske identified 3 main factors on EUR/USD: 1) changing investment environment; 2) European data is likely to disappoint and 3) the Euro is too strong compared to Eurozone fundamentals. These three factors, as well as the hawkish stance of the Fed and the IMF lowering its global growth forecast, will contribute to the EUR/USD's decline. The bank believes the pair will move even lower in the coming quarters and fall to 1.08 in by the end of 2022.
Deutsche Bank EUR/USD
Economists from Deutsche Bank revised their forecast for EUR/USD. According to them the pair will fall to 1.1 in the first half of 2022, after which it will return back to 1.15 by the end of the year and 1.2 in 2023.
In its weekly review on January 24, Citibank revised its 6-12-month average forecast for the EUR/USD exchange rate to 1.13 from 1.12. The bank believes that if the pair can consolidate above 1.139, it will open a further opportunity for growth to 1.174. In the long term the Fed's rate hike will boost the dollar.
Societe Generale EUR/USD
Analysts in Societe General are bullish on Euro/Dollar and forecasting that pair could hit 1.11 by the end of June, 1.13 in the third quarter and 1.14 by the end of 2020.
Analytics for Commerzbank forecast that EUR/USD rate will be traded at 1.1 in the 2d quarter and 1.12 in the 3d quarter. By the end of the year, the price will reach 1.14 and 1.16 in the Q1 of 2021. Bank does not expect changes in central bank rates: Fed rate will stay at 0.0 - 0.25% ad ECB at -0.5%.
In Nordea forecasts that EUR/USD will be traded at 1.11 in 3-month term and 1.17 by the end of the 2020 year. The rescue QE program that was launched by the Fed to support the economy from coronavirus effect will have a negative effect for USD. From the other hand, in further collapsing of the global economy, the bank expects increasing inflows in the US dollar as a safe-haven currency and EUR/USD could go to parity.
Analysts from Westpac forecast that AUD/USD could fall to the minimums levels of the 2009 year toward 0.65.
According to fundamental Fair Value Model from Scotiabank, the rate for USDCAD should be 1.3015 in medium-term. A break of short-term support level 1.3235 should open perspectives for slide down to 1.3140/50. For upside move, the pair need to breach resistance at 1.33.
Analysts from Citi view a chance that UK can leave EU on WTO terms, that can add some optimism in economic conditions. The bank forecasts that GBP/USD can move up towards 1.38 in the next 6-12 month.
In the short term, the perspectives for pair are staying near or below 1.29.
Danske Bank USD/JPY
Experts from Danske see the average rate for USD/JPY will be 112 in the next 6-12 month. In short-term period the pair will be traded in the range of 108-110.
ING Bank GBP/USD
ING Bank predicts the growth of GBP/USD to 1.33 if the Conservative party will win in UK election.
Citibank forecasts further decline of EUR/USD to 1.0864 level. If Fed cut interest rate, EUR can get support in the long-term period.
Analysts from Citibank forecasts that Dollar Index will stay near 97.97 points in the next three month. In the long term period (6-12 month) index can drop to 97.35 - 89.26.